New Delhi: When it comes to Egypt, US is walking a fine line in diplomacy. While it has always haboured reservations on Mubarak’s autocratic rule, it has also played safe by allying itself with the present government to maintain a strong foothold in the Middle-East.

Being the largest Arab country, Egypt has long been a cornerstone for US foreign policy and its strategic military partner in the Middle-East region. The fact that Egypt has made peace with Israel plays a strong role in keeping a check on Arab hostilities towards the Jewish state. The ouster of Mubarak raises the strong possibility that the present status-quo might be upset.

When the unrest in Egypt began, US took a guarded stance by not straying too far away from Mubarak while simultaneously supporting Egyptians’ cry for democracy. “We will be reviewing our assistance posture based on events that take place in the coming days,” the White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs told reporters.

However, as the revolt grew in strength, the US has started making appropriate noises clearly supporting democracy for Egypt. "He (Mubarak) needs to listen to what's being voiced by the Egyptian people, and make a judgment about a pathway forward that is orderly but that is meaningful and serious," Obama has said.

US is slowly coming to terms with the fact that the cosy relationship it shared with Mubarak is nearing an end. It has now to mull on the possibilities and the steps it will have to take to protect its interests in the Middle-East region.

Egypt’s importance to US:

Egypt is the largest Arab country with the strongest military power among the Arab countries. This makes it strategically important to the US whose foreign policy is heavily influenced by it.

Israel-Arab relations:

The most important breakthrough for US in the middle-east came on the 26th of March 1979, when Israel-Egypt peace treaty was signed by Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. With this treaty, Egypt became the first Arab country to recognise Israel, which made it next to impossible for Arab countries to go to war with Israel. US has since viewed Egypt as its closest ally in the Middle East and continues to supply it with military and economic aid, and supporting it politically. For the past 30 years, since the time Mubarak took over after Sadat’s assassination, Mubarak has been a close ally to the US, upholding the peace treaty and being the key to America’s foreign policy in the Middle East.

“The Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty is the pillar of the structure in the Middle East,” said Edward P. Djerejian, a former American ambassador to Israel and Syria. “If the 1979 agreement goes asunder, everything falls apart.”

Military cooperation:

Egypt is the second largest recipient of US military aid after Israel, which makes it a major non-Nato ally of the United States- a fact which plays to America’s benefit in the Middle East.

The US-Egypt military cooperation gives US key access in the Middle-East. It is also considered to be a part of administration’s strategy in maintaining the availability of Persian Gulf energy resources. It also ensures that the international oil route, the Suez Canal, is secure. The Suez Canal forms a critical route for US warships transiting between the Mediterranean, and either the Indian Ocean or the Persian Gulf.
 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict:

Egypt is a key figure in the ongoing process to reach a resolution on the Israel-Palestine conflict. US relies heavily on Egypt to broker peace negotiations between the two countries.

President Hosni Mubarak has often stepped forward to encourage peace negotiations and has hosted peace summits which brought together world leaders in an effort to reach a resolution for the continued crises between the two countries. His now elected vice-President, General Omar Suleiman has also made efforts in the same direction and is highly regarded by both countries.

With Palestine itself, Mubarak shares a love-hate relationship. While Abbas, who controls the West Bank is appreciative of Mubarak’s peace efforts for Israel and Palestine, Hamas, the Islamist group which seized control of Gaza strip in 2007, is openly critical of Mubarak’s closeness with Israel. Hamas, which has been blacklisted by the US, believes Mubarak is supporting Israel’s agenda by keeping its Gaza-Egypt border shut.

While Hamas is allowing anti-Mubarak demonstrations on the Gaza strip, Abbas has banned such demonstrations in the West Bank. 

Terrorism:

Despite of the fact that Egypt has refused to send troops to aid US in the Iraq and Afghanistan war, it continues to strongly support US’ war against terrorism.

According to The New Yorker Omar Suleiman, the former head of general intelligence services, served as CIA’s point man in Egypt. In a covert operation, terror suspects were nabbed from around the worlds and sent to him for brutal interrogations.

Challenges the new regime might pose:

The Muslim Brotherhood is one group which might cause US some concern.

Founded in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood remains Egypt’s largest opposition group. The group preached fundamentalist Islamism and aimed to create an Islamic Egypt run on Sharia (Islamic law) principles. This objective has been kept in check, largely because the group is banned.

In1954, the group was officially banned by the Egypt government; however, it still plays an important role in Egyptian politics. Mubarak has granted the group some freedom and has allowed its members to run in parliamentary elections (independently). 

The Islamic Brotherhood has thrown its weight behind Mohammed El Baradei, former head of International Atomic Energy Agency, and a prominent voice in the Egyptian uprising. Although the group has no anti-US agenda, Israel is likely to be a sore issue between the two- if it comes to power.

The group has always been critical of Israel’s occupation of Palestine and in 1948 had raised an army to fight Israel in its war of Independence. The Israel-Egypt peace treaty will come under threat if it comes to power and this will raise the possibilities of Arab-Israel wars.

The Brotherhood’s support of Iran will also be a matter of concern for US and Israel. The group has undermined concerns that Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is for purposes of war against Israel and has said that the program is for peaceful purposes.

The group coming into power also means the access to the Suez Canal will the closed. It is an important transit route for trade of petroleum products and other cargo between the Mediterranean and the Middle East and Asia.

For Israel, the Islamic Brotherhood presents critical challenges in the Palestine region. The group openly supports Hamas. An Egypt under Muslim Brotherhood’s control will mean "stronger Islamist force in Gaza but also in the West Bank, as well as in Jordan, meaning Israel would feel surrounded in a way it has not in decades," writes the New York Times's Ethan Bronner from Jerusalem.

A leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Muhammed Ghannem was quoted making a statement on Arabic-language Iranian news network Al-Alam on 1-31-11: “The Suez Canal should be closed immediately, and that the flow of gas from Egypt to Israel should cease “in order to bring about the downfall of the Mubarak regime.” He added that “the people should be prepared for war against Israel…”

The destruction of Israel-Egypt peace, closing of the Suez Canal, setback in Israel-Palestinian peace talks, increase in Iran’s influence in the region, and thwarting of American counter-terrorism efforts, are the worst possibilities that might emerge from the new Egyptian political landscape. The situation presents ‘huge potential consequences for U.S. strategic interests in a vital region,’ said Martin S. Indyk, former US ambassador to Israel.

The world’s largest nation might win its democracy soon but freedom may come at a price- that is likely to be especially high for US and Israel.