Six reasons why Nitish will not snap ties with BJP
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Complex cast equations in favour of BJP-JDU
BJP and JDU each hold 40 percent vote bank of Bihar. In 243 seats assembly, JD (U) has 115 seats and BJP 91 seats.
Out of the 38 seats reserved for Scheduled casts BJP-JDU alliance hold no less than 37 seats. BJP ruled states have strong support of Scheduled Casts.
In Gujarat out of the 11 seats reserved for SC, BJP has won 8 seats, whereas only three seats are with Congress. Yadav's are very strong in Bihar with 18 MLAs in the assembly. Interestingly, 14 such MLAs belong to JDU-BJP combine.
Out of the Ninteen Muslim MLAs , eight belong to JDU-BJP. This goes on to prove that BJP-JD (U) has got strong support across wide spectrum of voters. Muslims too have equal liking for this union. This fact will keep Nitish close to BJP for a long time to come.
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Nitish Kumar has emerged from JP movement. He is ardent follower of JP and Ram Manohar Lohia.
JP movement was against congress policies. Now, it is very unlikely that Nitish will hold congress hand in next Lok Sabha polls.
However, Lallu Prasad Yadav, another JP movement product, has drifted from this tradition and moved to congress side.
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Congress presence in Bihar is negligible. Party managed to bag only fours seat in 2010 assembly elections. During 2005 assembly elections Congress had managed to win nine seats. Clearly congress is losing ground in Bihar. So, Nitish will stay with BJP, although he may be seen flirting with congress sometimes.
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Sushil Modi holds the key in crisis situations
BJP leader Sushil Modi has been going along well with Nitish Kumar. He is Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar, but never seen making sweeping statements that can vitiate the atmosphere in Bihar. He is respected as a practical man, deft at maneuvering behind the scenes.
He can play a crucial role in mollifying Nitish if BJP decides to prop Modi as PM candidate.
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Congress party's image has suffered many setbacks recently.
2 G-spectrum, commonwealth games, Coalgate, Lokpal movement, Delhi gang-rape, and price-rise are some of the issues that have left common people fuming at the state of affairs in the country. This perhaps explains why Modi has grown in stature and congress leaders are fast sliding down the popularity chart.
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Congress faces anti-incumbency
UPA has been ruling at the centre since 2004. This is a long period of time to let anti-incumbency factors play their role.
Surely, Nitish Kumar can't be expected to board a sinking ship.